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tv   [untitled]    December 19, 2012 3:30pm-4:00pm EST

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less than that and that is because indeed the central bag is doing everything to keep inflation within six and a half percent it's now at six point three percent there's really not much room for movement there also companies need to have a lot of rubles on their balance sheets because they are well they need to prepare for the tax season they need to repay their taxes they're basically. right but a lot of russian companies also paying their foreign loans at the end of the year so that's definitely a factor is going to lead to a weaker ruble that's probably the strongest factor at this moment because indeed this is the peak of the most popular season for companies to be repaying their foreign debt too along with the taxes so that they go in with new books that but on the other hand there are also other factors which i think will overweigh in the end because the everyone including you and me are getting ready for christmas and new year's the we need to have rubles to spend and presence or traveling or anything like that and at the same time traders in russia will have
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a very long all day break they don't want to risk it because other markets will be trading so probably move out into cash a lot of that the million ruble question is better to have a weaker ruble or a stronger ruble what do you think for the two of us at best to have a stable ruble therefore we don't risk our savings being too devalued or prices going to high for example but a weaker ruble can actually help and i believe that the next year we will see the ruble actually weakening because the russian government has had recent problems in balancing its own budget and having a weaker ruble export oriented economies like russia companies like ross and. get more money what they're selling abroad and therefore they're paying more taxes into the budget balance for example so that probably will be what was going to happen whereas having a strong ruble could actually keep interest rates intact. and therefore available money available on. market to play people in their vote call me so you
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can't we currency. thank you very much business artie's me to remember the day go on we'll have the actual ruble figures in just a couple of minutes and the markets moving on the total cost of this year's global catastrophes is roughly one hundred then forty billion dollars and that's according to a reinsurance company swiss re bad weather conditions are responsible for most of these tragic events that mainly took place in the united states of course includes hurricane sandy and the drought that hit the states in the second half of two thousand and twelve swiss re zapruder luminary calculations show that insurance companies will cover at least half of these costs and that's about sixty five billion dollars and that's a lot less than in two thousand and eleven when insurers had to dish out one hundred twenty billion dollars due to record earthquakes and flooding in the asia pacific region and in south america. spain defaulting
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oil falling to fifty dollars a barrel and the dax plunging more than thirty percent sacks of banks outrageous predictions for next year like an economic apart apocalypse the danish investment bank has published its unofficial projections for next year it says they're pretty unlikely but they'll send shock waves through the global markets if they materialize. now we're talking to the chief economist of fact the bank mr yakob son thanks a lot for joining. me in basically your outlook for next here is shockingly negative what are your main concerns in terms of economic and political events here. i think first of all it's pretty important to stress that this is
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not a fish of youth and actually every year for the last ten years we made these ten regions colts which one by one if any of them materialize could be upsetting the financial status quo so but in line of that i will say my main concern for next year is actually to do with the social tension i think it's kind of ironic that we ending two thousand and twelve with the highest stock market valuation says the crisis started mean was at the same time we have unemployment rate at an all time high meaning that the one percent is really benefiting from this crisis while the ninety nine percent is still seeing low disposable income and no optimism at all but you do say that even if one of your predictions actually materializes it will be pretty catastrophic for the global economy so that begs the question which one is the most likely to materialise. well fortunately i don't know which of the ten could be potentially most likely but i say my opinion that something like china
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against the hong kong dollar with the us will be very likely i think china increasingly wants to play it on their own they see themselves as the dominant force de odd dominant force in the world and i think the rhetoric versus japan but also the u.s. is increasingly hot and the tone could be said for setting up a currency zone in asia which is mimicking what we've seen in europe so i think one of those and a step towards to be very likely but i remain of the opinion that social tension rule come back in two thousand and thirteen and that could be the one incident of one event that changes the financial landscape which right now i have to say is the most optimistic seen since one thousand nine hundred ninety there's not a single analyst on wall street with things as and he's going to be down next year and the average six big to return for it produces twenty three and twenty percent next year so having said that you know we've put the really really high. almost as high as we put it low for twenty twelve and maybe that is what we need to be on the
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outlook for what about russia any major catastrophes here. i don't think i think the off to ten predictions we made of course said that energy prices energy level comes down to is what will impact mostly the domestic economy in russia i think roger is in a position where we can need to continue to see the handover from the one trick pony of the resource economy we need to see some sort of a freeing up we need to see increased competition and certainly we need to see that the economies is open up more to the rest of the world you need competition domestically in russia for a number of reasons but i don't see any aspiring catastrophic seams for russia but i think you have to calculate the fact that energy prices over the next ten years could be going down on average or not as it has been in the last twenty years well you mention fifty dollar oil prices how likely is that i would be a catastrophic event for russia it would probably and i think it's very likely
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because i think what will happen is that this year twenty twelve was really about how gas became a very big pawed of oil production and electricity generation in the u.s. right now you're producing electricity at ten year low prizes juicer the fact if you substitute a crude and call into natural gas which is in the u.s. straits a ten year low prices u.s. is gaining competition competitive advantages from this and i think all it will be very very difficult for russia but also the middle east to adjust to discretely quickly enough in order to accommodate what will be much much lower revenue income stream. that was steve york of son of saxo bank and liz do a quick run through the markets now first the currencies here in moscow the russian ruble ended the session weaker to the euro and stronger to the dollar which really reflects the euro dollar dynamic now on to the equity markets on wall street stocks
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are lower the sour after the latest housing data came in weaker than expected and there is not much progress in the fiscal cliff talks which worries investors the deadline is approaching fast over in europe equities posted gains on wednesday closing at a nineteen month high thanks mainly to the german business climate index the jumped more than analysts anticipated and here in russia the indices were mixed at the end of the day the my sex closed down just ever so slightly point two percent the r.t.s. ended the session in the block and that's the latest from the business desk up next on our tease sophie shevardnadze talks to an economist and author lawrence wrong about the failings of the u.s. financial system the occupy movement and china's economic outlook.
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the sun rises over what seems like and last forest here in the new directions quite hundred kilometers north of light of all storm as in much of the world it's disappearing at a catastrophic rate. thanks mockers both illegal and those finding ways to outsmart the system for filing down the forest of the poem or ski region for them profit goes well beyond the future of our planet and the result could be an ecological crisis the world wildlife fund for nature makes regular trips to help local rangers do what little they can to stop the logging but it's not easy lager set up traps making them hard to reach in an already rough terrain and have mastered ways to jump through legal loopholes. this is a nature reserve we're only sanitary logging of disease trees is a lie out according to law and not a single berry can be picked up along like this used their sanitary logging permit
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to cut down absolutely healthy trees and sell the profitable timber over the border in china we are on the hunt for illegal loggers and it's not going to be easy to forests. and their chances are slim now for now we can stay in our dreams but as soon as we find solid tracks we'll have to drop our wheels and get out silently in order not to scare the us off alexander some morning call has been a ranger for over twenty five years he can spend weeks at a time tracking a single group of loggers easier to work when snow falls in autumn it's impossible to find human tracks and even transport tracks are hard to see after hours of driving we get sent in the right direction by word of mouth you can see that the ground just soft here which means that twelve tractor trails are very fresh which in fact means that we need to be quiet in order to not scare them off as we get closer. this team says they're illegal but have no
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documents now xander can now call the police to take over his work here is done overwhelmingly outnumbered there are too few rangers working in the region and the w w f a says the government isn't doing enough to stop it the government now for more. than your forest and according to. the guys in the forest through this still. no one tries to stop them in just five years the force will be gone. to china what will the people who live after us do. it's a question more and more people are aware of to. climate change in the safety of our environment as a whole are being discussed around the world and perhaps still small steps that
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might be a start to people living in harmony with nature. laurence bram global activist author economist it's great to have you with us here today it's great to be here this is the global economic crisis broke out four years ago there's been so much effort. to put it back on track u.s. alone has been billions of dollars in bailouts it just doesn't seem to be able to take off why is it not picking up money as people used in the wrong way and they're using old ways to solve new problems and they're not coming up with new ways. we have you know sure the stimulus what happens is the money goes into the tracks and
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because you have no regulation between the banks and investment banks the money is not being allowed to people in communities are starting to use to reinvigorate you know the heartland of america it's going basically to the investment bankers were goes to the hedge funds and it goes into asian stock markets and commodities like oil and it creates inflation in china that's what's happening and it's not addressing the problem so it's creating more debt. and it's a it's a bad conundrum. what we really need in america is we need to reinvigorate our infrastructure or invest infrastructure is really really behind and there's a kind of self-denial about this i think we really need to think about maybe some more more balanced economics. reinvestment into infrastructure education core businesses investment policies fiscal policies are going to bring
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investment into america bring production back into the country and in turn be able to have real banking for real people so people can borrow money and start real businesses even if it's a small business that doesn't have to be globalized it can be something in your town even a learning from examples of micro finance and we need these kind of approaches and small few facets it is not model dimensional and that is what's being done now it's amount dimensional approach or not he's basically buying the debt by printing money this is not sustainable if you don't do this the u.s. dollars going to depreciate more against the currency we in turn are not making ourselves competitive again we are just are shoring the wealth concentration among the elite banking financial institutions well you talk about financing and banking and obviously that global financing being
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a very complicated game played out by the non-serious very often in consent with the government but really the main street people have nothing to do with it and know nothing about the process is there a taking place there how can they protect themselves or they can't and that's why we have a downfall we've had this whole pattern of we've called you know near liberal system of globalization outsourcing of jobs and what you've had is you've had a complete gutting of the industries in the mark. and in turn the communities and capital has flowed out it has been again concentrated with the financial sector the financial sector is the wealth driving sector so actually throughout the ninety's the past two decades as investment one coloe ball people corporations were seeking a low ball markets the whole thing was not really. cost effective production was
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more about trying to raise stock prices and the source of wealth was not the actual industry in supply chains it was actually the stock market itself this was where the wealth was supposed to be generated from and just didn't work it was a house of cards and so when it collapsed that collapsed badly and you need to. i lost. weight. when it suddenly rose was the talk of the town everyone was just talking about it and. died up are you disappointed i think it died off for several reasons for tactical reasons by think we have to look at the origin of the movement to understand why i thought and it was very much connected with movements it began in tunisia in twenty eleven and spread throughout europe the me and the arab spring sure all these movements were all completely connected how so well they were basically a global middle class revolution i mean why people took to the streets in cairo is
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because they were actually middle class who were being squeezed out by the concentration of power within the elite. and they themselves were not able to make ends meet so you have a situation in the world right now where eighty percent the world's population is facing a income gap differential where people are joining the lower end as opposed to taking in the middle class to be able to have a more. balanced social structure and so you had it occupied. something that was quite fantastic it was really the total spectrum of america coming out in the street and it was not what much of the mainstream corporate media depicted they depicted as a hippie thing derelict these are you know losers who don't have this isn't no homes this is not the case at all or why did you die out because the problems that
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led to the rise hadn't gone away exactly the problems were not being addressed by the movement the movement was on able to articulate very specific demands i think the reason for this was the movement itself didn't want demand there were so many people in the street there was such a broad cross-section that they didn't want to alienate anybody the thing about the missed opportunity if occupy was of that point in time they had so much momentum it could have become a political party do you think if occupy had a leader possibly if they had a leader or if they had really i think it's less about the individual leader because part of the nature of the movement was it was almost pantomime part of mine almost satirizing american politics our politics in america is personality based it's not issue based people vote for personalities and you have an almost cartoonish development of the two political candidates in the presidential election
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which draws our trucks voters are certain voters in a way was a protest against the refusal to how the leadership was you know. a protest against the nature of our own political system and the refusal to have even a very tied to group come up with a platform having the general assembly total transparency was you know beautiful in itself because it was really saying ok our political system is not to. once powered it's all obvious it's all behind the scenes but actually here we're going to be totally transparent so it was a fantastic pantomime it was i really want to say it was installation art from coast to coast criticizing the political system but it was not able to take the next step to actually change that system and i think this was this was the failing of the movement to think that could be another chapter like occupy the white house
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or occupy the federal reserve that would have very little right because you know this is they moved also from wall street to zuccotti park so they were actually moved to a neutral ground and of course the key issue of a political protest is being able to stop the means of capital or production the only case it is actually happened was in oakland where they were able to stop the ports and i was very symbolic and ultimately i think what would support many people would gather support from many people across america is if we had a third political party if we had a fourth political party if you had five political parties well now with those hugh s. in europe really underperforming konami cliff at this point all eyes are at china and you know when people talk about china. it's usually. focusing on economic growth of china really overlooking how differently the chinese view the world
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altogether. put aside the economy some even say that china doesn't have an ideology and you are a person who has lived there most of his life have spent several years consulting chinese decision makers to use realize that this is a kind of i have an ideology today the ideology is money that is the sole ideology i'd say from top to bottom that's what people are thinking that's what's on people's minds you have a system of hyper growth and the growth mentality has been also connected to the success mentality people in china judge their success they judge somebody by what brands they wear how many cars they have what the brand of the car is and and so you know you have a situation where i talk about you know it's the growth conundrum describe it is the beijing traffic i mean you once upon a time had people riding bicycles to get around town really easily but now you have
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so many ferraris and lamborghinis in gridlock traffic is what caught interactive parking lots nobody is moving and this is kind of reached this could be reaching a saturation point and exactly having no ideology absence of ideology or the sole ideology being more money as you say how healthy is that eventually for the future of the country especially on the back of the political system that's at the standstill or is a very conservative political system i think it's not healthy and we have to look at what may be emerging in the new leadership there was a leadership transition at the party this past october and she jinping stepped in to take over from which and how and the sort of outgoing speech of hu jintao was concept of scientific development and that was real. lee in a way enshrining this whole growth model that we can create social stability by
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making people happy by giving them more wealth by having more growth and more is better and in that whole party congress one word came out which is kind of huge in ping's new new word in that ecological civilization what does that mean maybe it means that we can have lots of cars but if we're breathing polluted air if we don't have clean water to drink we don't have a healthy lifestyle and so we could see yet to see what will happen but it's possible there could be a rethink on this growth model and i think the question right now people talk about the politics how will the politics of china evolve or change or be destabilized or can it continue to be stable i think the stability of chinese politics depends upon the sustainability of china's economy and that will be critical for the sustainability of the planet to use the local currencies like the rebel or the chinese one becoming reserve that's only this is the future because you have
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china's adopted a very different approach from what all the sort of world bank i.m.f. shock therapists have have preached you know you have to have immediate foreign exchange conversion are not going to that what they're doing is they're globalizing the renminbi currency and how they're doing it is incrementally and first they have swap agreements with the neighboring countries have the currency in use and then they're going to be seeking to price in the end currency or in baskets of multiple currencies key commodities such as oil and so through this process and if there is a consistent dialogue with russia with other developed developed developing countries like brazil india there could be. the creation of multi basket currencies for pricing of commodities and also i think what's very important
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is the discussion it's very preliminary now is even the idea of a brick bank brazil russia india. china and south africa actually there should be more players turkey in tunisia vietnam should all be brought into this in creating really a development bank for the developing world run by people who have had to go through and face the real challenges of development not by. think tanks and people sitting in a very. elaborate tory type environment theorizing about development but actually those countries who have the expertise from facing the real challenges and having to deal with them. thank you very much for this interview thank you.
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of human capability. struggling with a dream. to become the first. for. cool. listen.
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live. it.
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a little. live. gave you. any. good news a secret laboratory to mccurry was able to build the old most sophisticated robot which all unfortunately doesn't give a darn about anything tim's mission to teach music creation why it should care
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about humans and world events this is why you should care only on the r g dot com wealthy british silence i told some last night on the title of. markets why not counting the. find out what's really happening to the global economy with max cause or for a no holds barred look at the global financial headlines tune in to kaiser report on our. doings speak your language anything about the war not at their. school music programs and documentaries and spanish more matters to you breaking news a little turn to tip angles kittens stories. you hear.

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